Thomas H. Jordan
Morgan T. Page
Kevin R. Milner
Bruce E. Shaw
Timothy E. Dawson
Glenn Biasi
Thomas E. Parsons
Jeanne L. Hardebeck
Andrew J. Michael
Ray J. Weldon
Peter M. Powers
Kaj M. Johnson
Yuehua Zeng
Peter Bird
Karen Felzer
Nicholas van der Elst
Christopher Madden
Ramon Arrowsmith
Maximillan J. Werner
Wayne R. Thatcher
Edward H. Field
2017
<p><span>Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.</span></p>
application/pdf
10.1785/0220170045
en
Seismological Society of America
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
article